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☆ The Fed and war in the Middle East are the 2 things that could push the US economy into a recession, 'Dr. Doom' economist Nouriel Roubini says
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-02 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The US economy still faces two risks that could push it into a recession, Nouriel Roubini warned. AdvertisementAdvertisementThe US is facing two risks that could push the economy into a recession, according to economist Nouriel Roubini. That will cause the Fed to push interest rates higher, a move that could overtighten financial conditions and push the US into a recession, Roubini warned. Meanwhile, bond yields could plunge as investors flock to safe-haven assets like US Treasurys, Roubini warned. Other economists have also warned of recession risks, despite the resilience of the economy and the stock market so far this year.

Persons: Roubini, Doom, —, Nouriel Roubini Organizations: Service, Fox Business, Fed, Societe Generale Locations: Israel, Iran

☆ There are 2 factors that may be driving bond yields more than Fed meetings, Societe Generale says
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-02 | by ( Aruni Soni | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Fed meetings may not be the biggest mover of the bond market, Societe Generale said. AdvertisementAdvertisementDespite US bond yields plunging after Wednesday's Federal Reserve meeting, central bankers may not be moving the market as much as other factors, according to Societe Generale. Another factor elbowing yields higher is the Bank of Japan, according to Edwards. AdvertisementAdvertisementThis week, the BoJ further loosened its grip on bond yields, marking another step back from its so-called yield curve control policy meant to stimulate the economy by keeping interest rates low. "That pressure intensified at exactly the same time as it became apparent just how gargantuan US Treasury issuance had become," he added.

Persons: —, Albert Edwards, Fedspeak, Edwards Organizations: Societe Generale, Bank of Japan, Service, Reserve, Treasury, Treasury Department

The central bank left interest rates unchanged from its September meeting, but its formal statement acknowledged that “economic activity expanded at a strong pace in the third quarter.” In its last statement in September, it referred to the economy’s “solid” pace. But the Fed and Chairman Jerome Powell made sure that the lack of action Wednesday does not mean that rates could be raised should incoming data show the economy is remaining strong. And the Fed says it remains committed to bringing annual inflation down to its target level of 2%. “As of Oct 31, markets expect that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates above 4.5% through the end of 2024. But we think that interest rates could go much lower,” said BeiChen Lin, investment strategy analyst at Russell Investments.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Powell, “, We’re, ” Powell, “ We’re, It’s, ”, Neel Mukherjee, Subadra Rajappa, BeiChen Lin Organizations: Federal Reserve, Commerce Department, Fed, Societe Generale, Russell Investments Locations: TIAA, 10y

☆ Watch CNBC's full interview with Paul McCulley, Subadra Rajappa, and Nancy Tengler
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-01 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC's full interview with Paul McCulley, Subadra Rajappa, and Nancy TenglerPaul McCulley, former PIMCO chief economist, Subadra Rajappa, Societe Generale head of U.S. rates strategy, and Nancy Tengler, CEO & CIO of Laffer Tengler Investments, join 'The Exchange' to discuss fed Fed policy producing a gradual decline in inflation, the manufacturing recession spilling into services, the contrast between Fed and fiscal policy.

Persons: Paul McCulley, Subadra Rajappa, Nancy Tengler Paul McCulley, Subadra, Nancy Tengler Organizations: Societe Generale, Laffer, Investments, Fed

☆ A renowned market bear who called the dot-com bubble shares 3 warning signs that the economy is crumbling despite upbeat data, putting stocks at risk of further downside
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-28 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

The S&P 500 is up 7.6% year-to-date. Only about 40% of analyst ratings changes for S&P 500 companies are upgrades. While the S&P 500 is up over 7% this year, Edwards cited it as another data point covering up the economy's true health. Their outsized contribution to the index's performance is evidenced by the returns of the S&P 500 equal-weighted index, Edwards said, which is down by 5% this year. In the equal-weighted index, each individual S&P 500 constituent's performance impacts the overall index's performance the same.

Persons: Albert Edwards, " Edwards, Edwards, Freddie Kruger, —, Russell Organizations: Generale Chief Global, Societe Generale They're, Societe Generale, National Federation for Independent, Institute, Supply, Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, Tesla, RBC Capital Markets

☆ Clifford Chance's lawsuit against SocGen can continue in London, court rules
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-27 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

A logo of French bank Societe Generale is seen on the company's skyscraper at the financial and business district of La Defense near Paris, France September 14, 2023. Societe Generale's case against Goldas was ultimately dismissed, prompting the bank to accuse Clifford Chance of negligence. Clifford Chance applied to London's High Court for a declaration that it was not liable to Societe Generale for any alleged negligence or breach of duty. "The dispute concerns whether or not an English firm of solicitors were negligent in their conduct of English law litigation in the English High Court," the judge said. Clifford Chance and Societe Generale declined to comment.

Persons: Gonzalo Fuentes, Clifford Chance's, Clifford Chance, Goldas, Judge Andrew Henshaw, Sam Tobin, Kirsten Donovan Organizations: Societe Generale, La Defense, REUTERS, France –, Generale's, High, Thomson Locations: La, Paris, France, London

☆ What’s Happening in the Bond Market?
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-26 | by ( Joe Rennison | More About Joe Rennison | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

The interest rates on mortgages, credit cards and business loans have shot up in recent months, even as the Federal Reserve has left its key rate unchanged since July. The focal point has been on the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield, which underpins many other borrowing costs. The 10-year yield has risen a full percentage point in less than three months, briefly pushing above 5 percent for the first time since 2007. Strong growth and stubborn inflationInitially, when the Fed first began to fight inflation, it was short-term market rates — like the yield on two-year notes — that rose sharply. Those increases closely tracked the increases in the Fed’s overnight lending rate, which rose from near zero to above 5 percent in about 18 months.

Persons: ”, Subadra Rajappa, — Organizations: Federal Reserve, Treasury, Fed

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., October 20, 2023. General Electric (GE.N) jumped 6.4% in premarket trading after the aircraft engine manufacturer raised its full-year profit forecast. General Motors (GM.N) added 1.5% after beating third-quarter profit estimates, while 3M (MMM.N) gained 4.1% after raising its full-year adjusted profit forecast. Of the 86 companies in the S&P 500 that have reported earnings so far, 78% have topped analysts' expectations, LSEG data showed. The turmoil in the Middle East is also focus as Israel intensified its assault on Hamas in Gaza.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Bitcoin, Shubham Batra, Shashwat Chauhan, Vinay Dwivedi Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Dow, Nasdaq, General Electric, General Motors, 3M, Societe Generale, Apple, Microsoft, Reserve, Nvidia, Commerce Department, Dow e, Reuters, Arm Holdings, Intel, Marathon, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Israel, Gaza, Coinbase, Bengaluru

If U.S. and Chinese growth holds up, the investment landscape will need to be redrawn too. Reuters Image Acquire Licensing RightsBut what if peak bond bearishness is already upon us? As Societe Generale's Albert Edwards points out, once the quarterly deflator is factored in, nominal GDP growth in the third quarter was actually only 3.5%. Reuters Image Acquire Licensing RightsEqually, U.S. stocks look expensive if high yields start to choke the economy. Reuters Image Acquire Licensing Rights(The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for Reuters.)

Persons: Florence Lo, Societe Generale's Albert Edwards, Chris Iggo, Jamie McGeever, Chizu Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, Societe Generale's, World Bank, International Monetary Fund, of America's, HSBC, Reuters, AXA Investment, Bank of America's, Thomson Locations: Rights ORLANDO , Florida, United States, China, Atlanta, Beijing, Europe, U.S, Bank

☆ Campaigners say Europe's car leasing giants lag shift into electric gear
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-18 | by ( Nick Carey | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

But by examining car registration data T&E said that, with the exception of ALD, the leasing companies' claims are false. "Our investigation clearly shows that all leasing companies... are making green leadership claims that are not backed up by evidence," the report says. "In other words, leasing companies are greenwashing." Across the EU as a whole, T&E found EVs made up just over 10% of leasing companies' car purchases, the same share as for the rest of the market. "What remains unclear is whether the major leasing companies will take these steps or remain rooted in the fossil age."

Persons: ZE, Eric Gaillard, Arval, EVs, Nick Carey, Barbara Lewis Organizations: Renault, REUTERS, Transport & Environment, Wednesday, Societe Generale, ALD, BNP, Ford, Nissan, Credit, Financial Services, Thomson Locations: Cagnes, Mer, France

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., September 26, 2023. On the earnings front, consumer goods maker Procter & Gamble (PG.N) edged up 0.2% after its quarterly sales topped market expectations. EV maker Tesla (TSLA.O) and streaming services company Netflix (NFLX.O) are scheduled to report quarterly results after market close. ET, Dow e-minis were down 93 points, or 0.27%, S&P 500 e-minis were down 18.5 points, or 0.42%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were down 88.25 points, or 0.58%. Travelers Companies (TRV.N) reported a 14% fall in quarterly profit.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Joe Biden, Morgan Stanley, New York's John Williams, Governors Christopher Waller, Michelle Bowman, Jerome Powell's, Powell, Patrick Harker, Neel Kashkari, Ankika Biswas, Shashwat Chauhan, Arun Koyyur, Vinay Dwivedi Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, United Airlines, Dow, Nasdaq, U.S, Chevron, Exxon Mobil, Occidental Petroleum, Treasury, Procter, Gamble, Abbott Laboratories, Tesla, Netflix, Federal Reserve, Governors, Generale, Philadelphia Fed, Wall Street Journal, Minneapolis, Dow e, Nvidia, Biden, China . United Airlines Holdings, Rivals American Airlines, Delta Air Lines, Interactive, Travelers Companies, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, United, Gaza, Israel, New, China, Bengaluru

REUTERS/Kai Pfaffenbach/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsHONG KONG/LONDON, Oct 17 (Reuters) - Bond yields rose on Tuesday and stocks steadied as markets continued to retrace last week's moves to safe-haven assets, focusing on corporate earnings prospects and the resilience of the U.S. economy rather than tensions in the Middle East. Benchmark 10-year bond yields in the U.S. and Germany (Bunds) rose around 5 basis points (bps) on Tuesday having risen 5-8 bps Monday - bond yields move inversely to prices. Israel's shekel remained on the weak side of the 4 per dollar level it softened to for the first time since 2015 on Monday. Russian President Vladimir Putin on Tuesday arrived in Beijing to meet Chinese President Xi Jinping even as the war in Ukraine raged on. If investors do not receive the coupon payment, all of Country Garden's offshore debts will be deemed in default.

Persons: DAX, Kai Pfaffenbach, Banks, BNY, Goldman Sachs, We're, Jorge Garayo, Joe Biden, Israel, Israel's shekel, Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping, BoE, Gold, Brent, Selena Li, Alun John, Shri Navaratnam, Ed Osmond, Alex Richardson Organizations: Deutsche, REUTERS, Bank of America, Treasury, Bund, Societe Generale, U.S, Israel, Hamas, Iran's, Tuesday, HK, Bank of England, Swiss, Venezuela, Thomson Locations: Frankfurt, Germany, HONG KONG, U.S, Iran, Gaza, Beijing, Ukraine, Friday's, Washington, Israel, Hong Kong, London

☆ Inflation unlikely to come down without a recession, says Société Générale chairman
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-12 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailInflation unlikely to come down without a recession, says Société Générale chairmanLorenzo Bini Smaghi, chairman of Société Générale, joins CNBC's Silvia Amaro during the IMF meetings to discuss his forecast on global inflation and the possibility of a soft landing.

Persons: Société Générale, Lorenzo Bini Smaghi, Société, CNBC's Silvia Amaro

REUTERS/Staff/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsSummaryCompanies Global stocks tick up; U.S. futures riseBond yields tumble again but remain highOil prices steady after rising on Israel-Hamas warLONDON/SINGAPORE, Oct 11 (Reuters) - Global stocks edged higher on Wednesday while bond yields dropped again as investors waited for minutes from the latest Federal Reserve meeting and U.S. inflation figures. Meanwhile, oil prices were little changed as traders kept an eye on the conflict between Palestinian militants and Israel. The MSCI All World stock index (.MIWD00000PUS) was last up 0.21% on Wednesday, after rising 1% in the previous session. Futures for the S&P 500 were up 0.26% after the stock index (.SPX) climbed 0.52% on Tuesday. Global stocks, which had been on the slide since early August, have rallied for the last few sessions.

Persons: Dow Jones, I'm, Florian Ielpo, Arthur van Slooten, Raphael Bostic, Harry Robertson, Tom Westbrook, Sam Holmes, Alex Richardson Organizations: REUTERS, Staff, LONDON, Reserve, Nasdaq, Dow, Lombard, Global, Investors, Treasury, Societe Generale, Atlanta Fed, Bloomberg, Thomson Locations: Frankfurt, Germany, Israel, SINGAPORE, Palestinian, Nashville, Gaza, Brent, China, London, Singapore

☆ The US economy's safety net is bigger than anyone thought
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-11 | by ( Noah Sheidlower | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Americans' excess household savings are much higher than previously thought. The household savings rate was revised from an annual average of 7.9% between 2017 and 2019 to 6.5%. This could be good news for the economyPrior to the revisions, though, many economists thought excess savings would run out quickly. A San Francisco Fed study updated in August estimated excess savings would likely be depleted during the third quarter of 2023. AdvertisementAdvertisementPerhaps more excess savings than previously thought could cheer up some Americans gloomy about the economy.

Persons: —, Société Générale, Bankrate Organizations: Service, Bureau, JPMorgan, BEA, San, San Francisco Fed Locations: San Francisco

☆ Planisware shares priced at 16 euros in Euronext's biggest IPO in two years
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-11 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

The Euronext stock exchange is pictured at the La Defense business district in Paris, France, September 30, 2022. REUTERS/Benoit Tessier/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsOct 11 (Reuters) - French software company Planisware has priced its shares at 16 euros ($16.97) each for its initial public offering announced last week, a bookrunner said on Wednesday, making it the largest IPO on Euronext Paris in the last two years. The IPO aims to "strengthen Planisware’s position across strategic markets by increasing its market visibility and brand awareness." The group previously said it aimed for a valuation of between 1.11 billion euros ($1.17 billion) and 1.25 billion euros, with a price bracket of 16 to 18 euros per share. The company's shares are due to begin trading on Oct. 16 on Euronext Paris.

Persons: Benoit Tessier, Nathan Vifflin, Diana Mandià, Alison Williams, Louise Heavens Organizations: La Defense, REUTERS, Euronext Paris, Airbus, Philips, Ford, Pfizer, Thomson Locations: Paris, France, Planisware

☆ You'll see a break in yields once you see a 'meaningful slowdown' in the economy: Subadra Rajappa
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-09 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailYou'll see a break in yields once you see a 'meaningful slowdown' in the economy: Subadra RajappaAnastasia Amoroso, iCapital chief investment strategist, and Subadra Rajappa, Societe Generale head of U.S. rate strategy, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the latest market trends, the impact of Israel-Hamas conflict, rising Treasury yields, and more.

Persons: Subadra, Anastasia Amoroso Organizations: Societe Generale Locations: Israel

☆ Analysis: Trend hedge funds come out winners in bond market rout
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-06 | by ( Nell Mackenzie | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Yet in one corner of the hedge fund world, there's a sigh of relief. So-called trend following and systematic hedge funds have long positioned for a fall in government bond prices given higher-for-longer inflation. AlphaSimplex is a $7.9 billion trend following hedge fund. While many trend funds, also known as "managed futures" funds, use price data, their trading models might also interpret macro economic factors playing out in markets. Some trend funds shrank their fixed income holdings in response to the March turmoil.

Persons: Carlo Allegri, Kathryn Kaminski, Morningstar, Razvan Remsing, Yao Hua Ooi, Laurent Le Saint, Metori, Aspect's, Nell Mackenzie, Dhara Ranasinghe, Susan Fenton Organizations: New York Stock, REUTERS, Generale, Reuters, Silicon Valley Bank, Treasury, Virtus, AQR Capital Management, Capital Management, Thomson Locations: Manhattan, New York City , New York, U.S, United States, Germany, Boston, Silicon, Europe, China, Paris, EU, Japan

Re-enter risk premia on what should be 'risk free' bonds. The renewed corporate profits upswing riffs off this relatively robust nominal growth picture too - as do still benign corporate debt premia. However, keeping a lid on 5% nominal GDP may well be what's irking bonds as much as anything. While turning 10-year averages takes some time, nominal GDP growth according to a real time model from the Atlanta Fed is closer to 8% right now. CBO deficit projections to 2030US nominal GDP growth running at 8%?

Persons: York Fed's, Ajay Rajadhyaksha, today's, Treasuries, Fitch, Andrew Heavens Organizations: Treasury, Federal, Fed, The, Barclays, Societe Generale's, Atlanta Fed, Moody's, U.S . AAA, Reuters, Thomson Locations: U.S, Washington, York, 35bp, 150bp, Treasuries, China, Europe

☆ The stock market today has 'echoes' of the 1987 crash, and even a hint of a recession would be a massive blow to equities, Societe Generale says
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-03 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Stocks are following the same path they did ahead of the 1987 stock crash, Societe Generale said. Investors are bullish in the face of rising bond yields, in an "echo" of late 80s sell-off. AdvertisementAdvertisementThe stock market is sending worrying signals, and any sign of recession now could spark a big sell-off, according to Societe Generale strategist Albert Edwards. But the outperformance in the face of soaring bond yields could be a warning of pain to come, if history is any guide. Meanwhile, only 32% of individual investors think the chance of a 1987-style stock market crash over the next six months is less than 10% according to Yale's US Crash Confidence Index.

Persons: Albert Edwards, —, Edwards, Dow, bullishness, Raymond James Organizations: Societe Generale, Service, Generale, Federal Reserve, Treasury, York Fed

☆ Our base is U.S. will go into a recession by middle of 2024: Societe Generale's Subadra Rajappa
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-29 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailOur base is U.S. will go into a recession by middle of 2024: Societe Generale's Subadra RajappaSubadra Rajappa, Societe Generale head of U.S. rates strategy, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss latest Treasury yield trajectory, the impact of higher rates on markets, where yields are headed, and more.

Organizations: Societe Generale Locations: U.S

The headquarters of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) are seen in Washington, July 6, 2009. One said some firms could pay as much as $50 million. The SEC has previously negotiated two other large group settlements as part of its "off-channel" communications probe. In August, regulators fined nine Wall Street firms, including Wells Fargo (WFC.N) and Societe Generale (SOGN.PA), a combined $549 million over employees' use of personal messaging apps. In September 2022, it fined 16 firms, including Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Citigroup and Bank of America, $1.8 billion for similar lapses.

Persons: Jim Bourg, Spokespeople, Oppenheimer, Voya, Wells, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan Chase, Chris Prentice, Carolina, Michelle Price, Jacqueline Wong Organizations: U.S . Securities, Exchange Commission, SEC, REUTERS, Reuters, Truist Financial Corp, US Bancorp, Voya Financial, LPL, Interactive, Oppenheimer, Fifth Third Bancorp, Fifth, Truist, Wall Street, Societe Generale, Citigroup, Bank of America, JPMorgan, Thomson Locations: Washington

☆ Larger Italian banks still seen paying one-off tax despite opt-out offer
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-25 | by ( Valentina Za | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

The government sparked a market rout last month with the surprise announcement of a 40% tax on the profits banks are reaping from rising interest rates. The option would benefit banks that hold a higher proportion of Italian government bonds among their assets relative to loans. Banca Akros and broker Equita also expect most banks to pay the tax. Equita also said paying the levy would allow lenders to maintain more flexibility over their remuneration policy. Switching the tax basis to risk-weighted assets helps banks which have a lower 'risk density', meaning the average risk weight per unit of exposure.

Persons: Jennifer Lorenzini, Equita, Akros, Siena, Valentina Za, Kirsten Donovan Organizations: REUTERS, Generale, Banca Akros, ICCREA, Bank, Banca Generali, Thomson Locations: Monte dei, Siena, Italy, Italy's

☆ Wall St Week Ahead Fed-wary investors eye mounting risks to US stock rally
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-22 | by ( David Randall | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The S&P 500 (.SPX) tumbled 2.9% this week, its biggest weekly decline since March. High Treasury yields dull the allure of stocks by offering investors an attractive payout on an investment seen as virtually risk free. The S&P 500 entered what has historically been its weakest 10-day stretch of the year on Sept. 18, according to BofA Global Research. Meanwhile, a drawn out government shutdown could aggravate concerns over U.S. government gridlock and send Treasury yields even higher. He noted that the S&P 500 remains above its 200-day moving average and there have been few signs of investors fleeing to safety.

Persons: Charlie Ripley, Brian Jacobsen, “, ”, Fitch, Keith Lerner, Adam Turnquist, David Randall, Ira Iosebashvili, David Gregorio Our Organizations: Federal Reserve, Fed, Investors, BoFA, Allianz Investment Management, Treasury, Annex Wealth Management, BofA Global Research, Societe Generale, LPL Financial, Thomson

☆ Baby boomers are big winners from the Fed's policies - but younger generations are 'screwed,' market veteran says
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-21 | by ( Theron Mohamed | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Baby boomers are the big winners from the Federal Reserve's policies, Larry McDonald said. Years of low interest rates boosted asset prices, and now they can earn 5% from Treasury bills. AdvertisementAdvertisementMcDonald's X post made the point that higher rates have lifted yields on Treasury bills to more than 5%. As a result, baby boomers have the option to cash out their profits, invest in short-term government debt, and collect a solid, guaranteed return. While baby boomers are under fire for hoarding wealth, their spending in retirement could prove crucial in sustaining the economy and preventing a recession, market veteran Ed Yardeni argued this summer.

Persons: Larry McDonald, McDonald, Lehman, He's, boomers, Baby, That's, Ed Yardeni Organizations: Service, Fed Locations: Wall, Silicon, millennials, Ukraine

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